China has become a status quo power ; China rising, India shining

‘China has become a status quo power’


By Wang Gungwu

Inquirer


Last updated 06:29am (Mla time) 12/03/2006


Published on page A12 of the December 3, 2006 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer



(This article is based on the notes taken by Juan V. Sarmiento Jr. while Wang was delivering a lecture titled “China: Economic Strength and Structural Weakness” at the 7th Asian-European Editors’ Forum in Singapore on Oct. 5. The forum was organized by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.)


WHAT made China’s economic jump possible? There are several things that existed before that helped China’s rapid economic expansion.

One is the strong risk-taking culture of the common people. Because a majority of the people have lived with uncertainty, they are ready to look for opportunities even if there are risks involved. The entrepreneurial risk-taking culture was not lost after 40 years of communism.

The Communist Party had earlier failed to realize China’s agricultural potential.
Deng Xiao Peng’s opening of the economy began by liberating the peasants from tight controls. The new freedom in the rural areas provides a major stimulus to kick-off other sectors of the economy.


Liberalization

Then, there’s the number of people trained with the basic skills needed for an industrializing economy. In 1980, this was 20 times larger than it was in 1949 [the year the Communists won]. These people were given new encouragement and fresh capital and equipment as part of the liberalization starting after 1978.

The economic stimulus in the neighborhood—[the rapid economic development in] Japan, Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore—also is a factor. The people are fully aware of what the neighbors have achieved. If the neighbors could do it, why not China?

All these led to an economic miracle, but it does not come from nowhere. There is continuity with what China has and also what its revolution started.


Power structure’s continuity

The power structure’s continuity in China is more obvious. The political party today is a reformed version of something that had first been modeled on the Soviet party.

There is also continuity from Chinese history where power is based on victory on the battlefield. The Chinese accept the legitimacy of whoever wins on the battlefield. Victory sustained all dynasties.

Like the dynasties, the Communist Party of China (CPC) won the mandate of heaven. On that basis, the Communist Party believes that it has the authority to do anything that needs to be done to unify the country and consolidate its power.


Sons of Heaven

Like earlier Sons of Heaven, the CPC thinks it is right for the party to be above the law in the same way that emperors were above the law. Theirs was the tradition of rule by man rather than rule by law. But the Communist Party says it wants to move to the rule by law. In practice, the party has found it difficult to be consistent. The son of heaven is beyond the law.

It’s a contradiction that is creating a lot of difficulties. For example, a CPC member accused of a crime goes first before the party. There the party judges him before he goes to court. This undermines a key principle of the rule of law.


Social unrest

As the economy moves forward, disturbances and peasant unrest have risen. [Many of the disturbances have been triggered by officials seizing land that people occupy or till without compensation. The seized lands are for factories or real estate development projects].

There have been local disturbances in all of Chinese history, but only a few, which were coupled with outside threat, succeeded. The central government that fell did so because it found itself fighting on many fronts.

The central government’s strategy is to keep internal conflicts local and make friends abroad. There is no external threat right now. Because China has no real enemy today, it can concentrate on development and keep local conflicts in check.

Is China a threat to its neighbors? For the most part [of history], it was defending itself. It built the Great Wall to keep overland invaders out. But the wall did not stop the Mongols and later the Manchus from conquering China. All of China was under Mongol rule for nearly 100 years and under the Manchus for more than 250 years. It was the Mongols who had tried to conquer Korea, Japan and Java, and the Manchus who extended China’s boundaries to make their lands safer from foreign conquest.

Sun Yat-sen pushed for nationalism to get rid of the Manchus on the principle that people have the right to rebel and overthrow rulers if they are governed badly. That, in a sense, is the Chinese idea of democracy.


International stage

Over the past 25 years, bright people in China have been studying the international system and have learned how it works. China will remain a player within the international system as long as it is good for China. The Chinese will resist moves to change the international system if the changes are not in China’s interest. In a sense, China has become a status quo power.

What is the role of overseas Chinese? The country has been attracting huge investments from overseas. But the investment of the overseas Chinese is small. The bulk comes from Hong Kong and Taiwan. The Chinese overseas tycoons are investing in the interior because they cannot compete with Hong Kong and Taiwanese Chinese in the coastal areas of mainland China.


Identity crisis

With the rapid economic development, the rural-based extended family is under threat. The one-child policy pursued by the government has undermined the deep-seated functions of Chinese families. All social values that the Chinese take pride in are under “threat.” Many are now seeking anxiously for ways to preserve these values.

The Shanghai syndrome (as seen in the coastal areas) is the dominant feature of Chinese change—rapid acceptance of Western ideas of development at all levels. But the interior where 70 percent of the population lives does not feel comfortable with that syndrome.

For example, people in Xi’an City, the ancient capital of China for over 1,400 years—once its center of political power, culture and civilization—continue to harp about the values that lie at the heart of China. The Xi’an response is characterized by deep concern for China’s heritage.

The interplay between the Shanghai syndrome and the Xi’an response must be watched as the Chinese are reforming toward a post revolution structure. The traditional past and the modernist revolution could be meshed together to produce a new system that is particularly suited to China’s needs.

It’s not economic revolution that will help China. It’s not political structure either. The rise of China cannot be secured if its strengths and weaknesses are not balanced.

(Wang is the director of the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore. He was born in Surabaya, Indonesia in 1930, and grew up in Ipoh, Malaysia. He studied history in the University of Malaya, where he received both his Bachelor and Masters degrees. He holds a Ph.D from the University of London for his thesis on the structure of power in North China during the Five Dynasties.)



Copyright 2006 Inquirer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.






China rising, India shining



Inquirer


Last updated 06:29am (Mla time) 12/03/2006


Published on page A12 of the December 3, 2006 issue of the Philippine Daily Inquirer


SINCE Deng Xiao Peng declared a generation ago that “to be rich is glorious” and that “it doesn’t matter if a cat is black or white so long as it catches mice,” China has produced what is considered the most successful case of economic development in human history.

Over the past 25 years, its economy has expanded more than tenfold, making China the fastest-growing country in the world. It practically produces everything for the world market. As a result, China has accumulated about $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.

China’s surging economy is like a vortex, sucking foreign investments and raw materials from near and far. From carmakers such as General Motors and Toyota to retailers like Wal-Mart, foreign companies are investing in the Middle Kingdom.

To secure raw materials like timber, mineral ore and oil for its industries, China is investing in the Philippines, Brazil and Sudan. It is building roads in Burma, Laos and Cambodia, and is granting them loans with conditions better than those offered by the World Bank.

Ever wonder where the missing manhole covers, P1 coins or pilfered telephone cables are going? To metal-hungry China.

India, for its part, has become the second fastest-growing country in the world over the past 15 years. India is known for its galloping service-driven economy, thanks to its call centers and software exports.

In the next 25 years, China and India are expected to become the world’s dominant economies, a phenomenon that a former World Bank head considers “a return to form rather than a novelty.”



Copyright 2006 Inquirer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.