US envoy warned of coup --from www.inq7.net

US envoy warned of coup
Mussomeli report may be one of FBI stolen files

First posted 00:16am (Mla time) Sept 18, 2005
By Norman Bordadora
Inquirer News Service




THE United States Embassy said in a report last April that President Macapagal-Arroyo's public support had faded and that it had been told elements in the Armed Forces were planning to move and force her into resigning, according to a document obtained by the Inquirer yesterday.

The embassy said that "imprecise" information it had received also suggested that Ms Arroyo might try to use her hardcore supporters outside the military, who could be armed, to thwart any coup attempts against her.

These were some of the points mentioned in the April 15, 2005, intelligence assessment prepared by then US Embassy Charge d'Affaires Joseph Mussomeli and sent to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, only weeks before the "Hello Garci" tape scandal and a Senate inquiry into alleged "jueteng" payoffs plunged the Arroyo administration into its worst political crisis.

The paper said that deposed President Joseph Estrada seemed to have benefited "substantially" from Ms Arroyo's waning popularity.

US Embassy press attaché Matthew Lussenhop said no comment when the Inquirer contacted the embassy.

Mussomeli is now the US ambassador to Cambodia. He left Manila last month. Days before he left the country, he told reporters that while there was always disgruntlement in the military, "I don't believe there's any risk now of any military coup. Put it at close to zero."

The Mussomeli paper referred to what it said were rampant rumors at the time that a coup attempt could occur "as early as May 2005." Titled "Philippines: Public Unease Growing,"Mussomeli's intelligence assessment could be one of the estimated 100 classified FBI files allegedly downloaded by the FBI's Filipino-American intelligence analyst Leandro Aragoncillo and sent to several personalities in the country.

The FBI has arrested Aragoncillo and former Philippine National Police Senior Supt. Michael Ray Aquino, to whom Aragoncillo had supposedly passed on the files, on espionage charges. Aquino's lawyer said his client had not breached any US law.

"The broad support that Macapagal-Arroyo enjoyed following her inauguration last year has faded and public frustration with the economy, corruption and the stalled efforts at reform have taken their toll on her standing," the paper said.

The paper was also prepared in the wake of a nationwide transport strike that even had the US diplomat mentioning in the report that its effects "might persuade the military to move...."

"With the impending unification of the opposition groups, Embassy Manila suggests that Estrada seems to have benefited substantially from her declining ratings," read the report prepared by the top American diplomat in the country at the time.

The report also quoted US Embassy sources as saying that a trusted emissary of Ms Arroyo had been sent to visit Estrada in detention at his Tanay, Rizal, estate to ask the deposed leader "to lower his politicking."


Estrada has 'highest rating'

"Despite being incarcerated for almost four years, Estrada still maintains the highest popularity ratings in the country," the report said. "He equates legitimacy with popular support and his intention to revive the pro-Estrada fervor has already produced destabilization rumors."

"Reports from the US Defense Attache's Office suggest [the coup plotters] are planning an undefined `military operation' involving elements from all four services that is intended to intimidate Macapagal-Arroyo into resigning," the report said.

The paper, however, admitted that US agents in the Philippines had "little information" on the composition and plans of the "mid-level military coup plotters."

"Rumors are rampant but vague, though the latest have officers moving against Macapagal-Arroyo soon, possibly as early as May 2005," the report said.

It mentioned Ms Arroyo as having supporters-who could likewise be armed-whom she could count on aside from an "unreliable military."

"Information on Macapagal-Arroyo's hardcore supporters, including how well armed or organized [they] are, also is imprecise. Some reporting suggests, however, that Macapagal-Arroyo may depend on these groups rather than his (sic) unreliable military to defend her government," the report said.


Two takeover scenarios

It also mentioned two scenarios involving a military takeover as having "imminent potential."

The first one involves the opposition goading Ms Arroyo into declaring a state of emergency, "prompting the military-unwilling to repress citizens of any political stripe-either to refuse or to turn against the President."

The second involves a "general strike" by those against her.

"Alternatively, if Macapagal-Arroyo responds to the strike by calling her own supporters into the streets to confront the opposition violently, the military could act against her in the name of restoring order," the report said.

The Mussomeli report also widely quoted from the findings of the Social Weather Stations survey at the time.

"Political infighting, social disorder and, above all, economic uncertainty have left the Filipinos increasingly anxious about the direction their country is taking, according to the latest SWS survey," the report's first sentence read.

The report also mentioned the SWS findings at the time that Ms Arroyo was not the only one to suffer a dip in popularity but also the legislature, judiciary, military and the police.

The paper also included a comment on Filipinos wanting sweeping electoral reforms at a time when the "Hello Garci" tapes – the alleged recorded conversations between Ms Arroyo and then Election Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano on poll results manipulation-had yet to be exposed.


Controversial envoy

"In the aftermath of recent elections, polling by SWS indicates that only 44 percent of the Filipino population is satisfied with democracy, leading many commentators to believe that the public is ready to endorse sweeping-and badly needed-electoral reforms," read Mussomeli's report.

Mussomeli easily became controversial during his stint as the US Embassy charge d'affaires when he once told the media that Mindanao was facing a scenario similar to Afghanistan when it was controlled by terrorists.





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